By Josh Shepherd

Public Enemy first instructed us all….”Don’t believe the hype!”  That’s a hard thing to do in these times.  When everything around us is about hype, how does one distinguish between the trends?   There are subtle signs of growth and decline in anything.  Learning how to catch all those signs may determine the future of your business be it iPhone App. designer, kindergarten teacher, entrepreneur, or lawyer.  That’s where Rolf Skyberg’s SXSW 2010 presentation, Dangerous Curves: Hockey Sticks, Swine Flu and More, comes in.

“There are lies, damn lies, and statistics,” Skyberg said. “Correlation does not imply causation. Hopefully people will walk out of my talk thinking differently about some of the patterns they see. Is it really exponential growth? Where is this trend in its hype cycle? Should I walk away, or should I run? Are we “storming”, “norming” or “performing”? I hope to give people new tools with which to interpret what they see happening around them.”

This SXSW presentation is a Skyberg’s continuing look at trends in the marketplace and learning how to correctly identify the trends.  Once those trends are figured out, it’s time to use that as an advantage.

“A few years ago at Web 2.0 EXPO in San Francisco I gave a talk that was well received, roughly equating Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to the recent burst in traffic to social networking sites, “ Skyberg recalled.  “As I continued to present this talk, certain graphs or curves kept coming up, and I felt there was a need to bring them all together as one package. This talk is part of an ongoing desire to help demystify some of the principles that seem to run the world.”

Skyberg has had a unique opportunity to study trends.  As the platform product manager for eBay, he has been able to take his observations and implement his ideas on a tremendous scale in a real life business.  It’s his own trend laboratory.  Now he is bringing his findings to SXSW to help those looking to not just believe the hype, but to understand it.

“My talk is cross-disciplinary, the wide range of attendees available from SXSW should make for a great audience of influencers and do’ers that is passionate about making things happen,” added Skyberg.  “It’s a little bit about tech, a little bit about business, and a whole lot about helping curious people say, “woah cool, I didn’t know that!””